International Journal of Science , Engineering and Management (IJSEM)

Monthly Journal for Science , Engineering and Management

Volume3,March 2018,

Topic : Generation of Autoregressive Time Series Model at Ground Water Fluctuation at Kaushambi District

Authors:Pushpendra kumar || R .K.Isaac, K. Krishnamurthy, Jameel Mohammed, Shwetma Mishra

Abstract:The present study was conducted with the prime objective to develop a stochastic time series model for prediction of groundwater fluctuation in Kaushambi. The area of the Kaushabi is 2012.8 sq km and the data of 10 years from 2002 to 2011 were used to develop the model Autoregressive (AR) models of orders 0, 1 and 2 were tried to develop an autoregressive time series model for annual groundwater fluctuation. The various parameters of the model were estimated by the general recursive formula proposed by Kottegoda (1980).The goodness of fit and adequacy of models were tested by Box-Pierce Portmanteau test, Akaike Information Criterion and by comparison of measured and predicted correlogram. The AIC value for AR (1) model is lying between AR (0) and AR (2) which is satisfying the selection criteria. The mean prediction error is less in case of ground water fluctuation by AR (1) model. The Graphical representation between measured and generated correlogram is showing that there is close agreement between pre and post-monsoon. The comparison between the measured and predicted ground water table and pre and post-monsoon by AR (1) model, clearly shows that the developed model can be used efficiently for the prediction of pre and post at the kaushambi district Ground water table.

Keywords: AR Model, ground water fluctuation

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DOI: 01.1617/vol5/iss3/pid54072

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Dr.Muhammad Ishtiaq,
Mirpur University of
Science & Technology,
Mirpur, Azad Kasmir.

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ISSN(Online): 2456-1304

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Thomson Reuters ID : q-6288-2016.
ORCiD Research ID : 0000-0001-9540-6799

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Journal Code : IJSEM
Electronic ISSN : 2456-1304
Impact Factor : 2.7
Frequency : Monthly
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