Open Access Journal

ISSN : 2456-1304 (Online)

International Journal of Engineering Research in Electronics and Communication Engineering(IJERECE)

Monthly Journal for Electronics and Communication Engineering

Open Access Journal

International Journal of Science Engineering and Management (IJSEM)

Monthly Journal for Science Engineering and Management

ISSN : 2456-1304 (Online)

The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Cambodia Garment Export Using Bayesian Regression

Author : Sreyneth Tum 1 Pathairat Pastpipatkul 2 Chaiwat Nimanussornku 3

Date of Publication :21st December 2020

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to find out the impact of macroeconomic variables on Cambodia garment export for the period of 2008-2019. To achieving paper goals, we have used the Cambodian garment export as dependent variable and the macroeconomic variables which will be our independent variables, we have global gross domestic product growth, FDI inflow on garment and textile, nominal exchange rate, unemployment rate, and inflation rate. Data have been collected from different sources like Ministry of Economics and Finance in Cambodia, National Bank of Cambodia, and World Bank. For analysis of our data, Bayesian regression is introduced to be the method of this research with MCMC stimulation to approximate desired posterior distributions. R program is used to estimate and display the result of this study. To finding out an objective of our paper we have been using different types of test. Geweke Diagnostic test result shows that data is stationary and convergence. Raftery and Lewis test result also indicates the convergence and stationary in the chain as well. We also used Autocorrelation, Cross-correlation and MCMC plot such as Kernel Density plot, Trace plot, Running mean plot and Autocorrelation plot. Our analysis shows that there was a positive relationship between garment export with Global GDP and Unemployment rate. However, we receive negative relationship between garment export with FDI inflow, Exchange rate, and Inflation rate.

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